I read this book on the way to and during the Alaska Trip that we took during last winter (2019). Read on the flight from SF to Portland and from there to Anchorage. The bulk of the reading was done during the full-day train journey from Anchorage to Fairbanks on the 3rd day of the trip. That was a magical train journey - to go through untouched snow in a vast land seemingly out of nowhere.
I had listened to ‘Sapiens’ through Hoopla a couple of years back. Probably twice. During my practice runs for the half-marathon that I was running that year and also during the run itself. Audio books are much slower reads than actual reading and I sometimes tend to zone out. Hoping to read the book on print/kindle in the future. But whatever I had heard, it was thought provoking and a well written book. It alters your perspective of the world and you begin to see the entire human history in a different light.
The author mentions that Sapiens was about the past of humanity, Home Deus was about the future and this book is about the present. He takes 21 problems, or 21 pressing concerns that the world if facing right now and addresses each of them. It is like reading 21 essays on different topics, well-articulated essays.
Part I: The Technological Challenge
Chapter 1: Disillusionment
Humans think in stories than facts. Harari had mentioned in Sapiens that the key reason for ascendency of Homo Sapiens was the story telling ability.
- The fascist story - History is a struggle of nations/races and one tries to subjugate another. Let’s give importance to our nation and our ideals.
- The communist story - History is a struggle of classes where the upper class always tried to subjugate the lower. Let’s envision a classless society.
- The liberal story - History is a struggle of liberty and tyranny. Let’s build a world of freedom and equality.
1938 - 3 global stories to choose from, 1968 - 2 stories to choose from (liberal, communist), 1998 - a single story (liberal democracy), 2018 - no story. Disillusionment !
Harari says that 2008 financial crisis precipitated the disillusionment and gave rise to a lot of pro-national sentiments. With the rise of Trump and Brexit in 2016, people seem to have developed a liking for the old racist and nationalist views. Nostalgia - Britain thinking of old glory, Islamist thinking of how things were 1400 yrs back during Caliphate, Zionists dreaming of going back 2,500 years back, and so forth!
Loved the paragraph about “Humans vote with their feet”. So true! There are millions of people who wish to immigrate to the US, Germany, Canada or Australia. How many wish to immigrate to China, India or Vietnam? People are willing to undergo extreme hardship to just cross the border and come to the US though there is so much bad press about how immigrants are treated badly, especially the ones from south of the border. How many Islamists from Syria or other countries want to migrate to Kuwait or Saudi vs Germany?
Harari defines a liberal set menu which outlines what it means at National and International level for Economic, Political and Personal areas. He is optimistic that people will not abandon liberal ideas altogether because of lack of viable alternatives. The dish might contain some items from the menu if not all.
Chapter 2: Work
The fear of losing job to a machine has been there since the beginning of Industrial Revolution. But, if you look at the stats, for every job lost to a machine, at least one new job was created. Every job lost to the machine raised the standard of living multi-fold. But future may be different. Work in 2050 might to totally different since AI seeks to not just replace the mechanical work that humans do but cognitive also.
There are some tasks that AI is much better than humans. For e.g. driving. Driverless cars could reduce fatality by 90%! degree. Two important non-human abilities that AI possesses are connectivity and updatability. If there are a billion doctors in the world who need to be updated about a new disease, it is almost impossible, but if there were AI-doctors who are networked, it is almost instantaneous.
In areas like elder care, music, art, etc., it might take longer for AI to do what humans do. In many fields, there might be more AI cooperation than competition. Also new jobs to debug, service AI will be created. But the key thing about the new jobs that will get created will be that they will require expertise. So retraining might be difficult.
In 2017 Google’s AlphaZero defeated Stockfish 8 program in a game of chess. The milestone was critical since AlphaZero learnt chess from scratch in 4 hours! AI is competing with other AI and not with humans anymore!
The author does say that rise of AI may not lead to exploitation of humans like it happened during the Industrial Revolution. It might get to a point where everything becomes efficient and people are provided with what they need - food, clothing & shelter. If one gets these things for free, will people go into irrelevance? Wow, one is reminded of ‘The Matrix’ here. AI could actually put all humans to sleep and keep them in a dream state so that they don’t destroy the earth!
The author talks about UBI (Universal Basic Income) or Universal Basic Services where social services are subsidized. It could become the utopian vision of communism!
He gives example of ultra-orthodox Jews who are poor and unemployed and spend all their time in studying scriptures. They are supported by the government and they are reported to have higher life satisfaction than other groups who have money and are employed!
The chapter ends with a positive, powerful note - “The quest for meaning and community might eclipse the quest for a job. If we manage to combine a universal economic safety net with strong communities and meaningful pursuits, losing our jobs to algorithms might actually turn out to be a blessing.”
Chapter 3: Liberty
During the Brexit vote, Ricard Dawkins had said that normal people should not have been asked to vote since most of them are not equipped to know the economic and political consequences of the decision. Elections are about what we feel and not what may be good for us. What people feel are mostly defined by their news feed or search results.
Computer algorithm might be better equipped to counsel humans than human feelings.
b×c×d = ahh Biological knowledge multiplied by Computing power multiplied by Data equals Ability to Hack Humans.
Algorithm could help you choose a better movie that you might like than you could, decide what to do based on mood, what to buy, which career to choose, etc. Human feelings are shaped by survival and reproduction a million years ago but it is not the case with AI/Algorithms.
The author says that knowledge of Philosophy will be in great demand since the algorithms need it to make basic decisions to create more complex ones.
Digital dictatorship is more dangerous than any dictatorship that we’ve seen in the past. Stalin didn’t possibly know or have control over normal citizens. But AI could know about every single citizen. Big Data algorithms might extinguish liberty and also might simultaneously create the most unequal societies that ever existed.
Chapter 4: Equality
The rise of liberalism and increase in globalization in the 1900s promised a more egalitarian society than all the centuries in the past put together. People in India and Egypt could enjoy the same opportunities and privileges as Finland and Canada!
But in the 2000s, the trend is changing. Wealth seems to be getting concentrated with the 1%. The richest 100 people own more than the poorest 4 billion people!
With the rise of AI and breakthroughs in biotechnology, the divide could get larger and impossible to reduce. Rich people in the past could buy more possessions or live in grandeur. The average rich person was not more intelligent than an average poor person. But now, they could soon have the ability to extend life, have more brain capacity, be more beautiful. The rich might become a set of superhumans who are like gods. This would result in the separation of humankind into a small class of superhumans and a massive underclass of ordinary Homo sapiens. Similar to Greek mythology! As the superhumans evolve to a different species, they might choose to wall themselves off widening the inequality.
In the 21st century, data will eclipse land and machinery as the most important asset. The race to control more data is already on with all the big corporations vying for more control. At the moment, ordinary people are more than willing to give away their personal data. In a battle between privacy and health, health is likely to win. But that is fraught with so many dangers even leading to people losing their liberty. But there is no way to ensure private ownership of data at the moment. A technology innovation in that area is very necessary.
Part II: The Political Challenge
Chapter 5: Community
In response to the growing nationalist sentiments after the 2016 elections, in 2017, Mark Zuckerberg published an audacious manifesto on the need to build a global community and that Facebook’s mission was to take this on. Breakdown of human communities was lamentable and Facebook could help people join meaningful communities online. Harari says that “finding meaningful communities and also strengthening our social fabric to bring the world closer together”, is more ambitious than even self-driving car. The goal is timely and noble.
But as more and more people live online, they are losing touch of their body, how it feels. People could listen to birds, know if a snake was in the grass by listening to the rustling, but now those skills are going away since people mostly are on their cellphones. People disconnected from their bodies are likely to feel alienated and disoriented. The time and energy you spend in communities online to connect with people across the world will be at the expense of your body, your family and your next door neighbors.
Chapter 6: Civilization
Harari says that there is only one civilization in the world now. “The West” and the “The Muslim World”, “The East”, etc. may seem different but they are all operating under the same guidelines of modern civilization. Humans in the past were divided into isolated civilizations but not anymore.
He gives example of Olympics, it was probably inconceivable to conduct Olympic games at an international level 1000 years back but now it is possible.
Another example is medicine. In the past, people in different places were treated differently accordingly to the local belief systems or superstitions. But now, it is mostly identical. People use the same proven scientific approaches and believe in cells and bacteria.
Chapter 7: Nationalism
Nationalism was and is needed for people to support large systems. Harari gives the example of tribes along the Nile river. A tribe or a small group could have easily perished in a famine if multiple tribes hadn’t come together as a nation to help build dam along the Aswan or other infrastructure to feed a large number of people.
Nationalism is actually not in the DNA of a Human. People might prefer to feed their immediate family rather than pay taxes to feed millions of unknown but still they do it. They believe in the propaganda and flag-waving and the feeling of shared history.
The problem starts when benign patriotism morphs into chauvinistic ultranationalism. Instead of believing that your nation is unique, if you believe that your nation is supreme and you will be blindly loyal to do whatever it takes to exert its superiority, your thinking is muddled and you’ve declared war. Reminded of Gandhi’s quote - “An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.”
Economic Challenge - Harari points out that extreme isolationism is completely divorced from economic realities. Without a global trade network, all existing national economies will collapse.
Nuclear Challenge - As more nations have nuclear power, without a robust system of international cooperation, there is no way to protect the world from nuclear destruction.
Ecological Challenge - Without international cooperation of multiple countries, the disastrous effects of global warming cannot be prevented.
Technological Challenge - With the rise of biotechnology, if there is no globally accepted ethical guidelines, it could be open season for Dr. Frankenstein.
The take away - “In order to take good care of your compatriots, you must cooperate with foreigners. So good nationalists should now be globalists.”
Chapter 8: Religion
Even in the 21st century, truly secular people are a minority. Billions of people still ardently profess belief in Christianity, Hinduism or Islam. But are they really helping solve the problems of today? In many places, religion is part of the problem of humanity and not the solution, it seeks to divide people and not unite, which is very unfortunate since, of all the ideologies that Homo Sapiens have had over the last millions of years, religion is probably the best unifying force.
3 types of problems in the 21st century
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Technical problems - Agriculture/Medicine - How should farmers deal with severe droughts caused by global warming? If someone is very sick, should he/she be taken to a hospital or a religious place? Religious authority has dwindled in medicine and farming because people don’t associate religion with those anymore.
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Policy problems - Economics - For questions like raising taxes, signing tariff agreements, grant authority to AI to make decisions about people’s lives, etc., people/govts turn to Economists and other modern financial theory. Does religion have much to contribute to the great policy debates of our time?
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Identity problems - Even in the 21st century, religion gets to define who is ‘us’ vs ‘them’. Many religions use it to divide people. The right approach probably is to adapt religion to new realities to unite people. Harari gives example of Japanese people having reinvented Shintoism.
Chapter 9: Immigration
As he said earlier, “Humans vote with their feet”. World is more connected than ever and immigration is a reality. Harari views immigration as a deal with 3 basic conditions or terms -
- The host country allows the immigrants in.
- In return, the immigrants must embrace at least the core norms and values of the host country, even if this means giving up their traditional norms. “When in Rome, be Roman”
- If immigrants assimilate, over time, they become ‘us’ than ‘them’.
There are always people in both camps. pro-immigration as well as anti-immigration. It is mostly a socio-economic issue. Many countries turn a blind eye to illegal immigration since they want to benefit from cheap labor of young foreigners. But they refuse to legalize the status, thus creating a society of upper class citizens who exploit powerless foreigners.
Immigration also depends on the cultural make up of a country. Some countries are more tolerant and have mechanisms in place to assimilate them. For e.g. German culture in the twenty-first century is more welcoming of immigrants than Saudi culture. So a Syrian refugee might actually prefer to flee to Germany and not to Saudi.
Harari illustrates the cultural differences using an example of fictional Coldians and Warmlanders.
2 points to remember -
- It would be wrong for any government to force large scale immigration on a local population if they are unwilling.
- Though people might oppose immigration, they should realize that they have an obligation towards foreigners.
Part III: Despair and Hope
Chapter 10: Terrorism
Since 9/11, terrorism has killed around 25,000 people. In contrast, traffic accidents killed 1.25 million people, diabetes killed 3.5 million people and air pollution 7 million people. Terrorists kill few people but instill fear on billions and rattle big governments.
Harari says that terrorists are like a fly that wants to destroy a china shop. But the fly is weak and has no power to even move a single cup. What does it do? It goes into a bulls ear and starts buzzing. The bull destroys the china shop!
Chapter 11: War
In the past, war was the way of the world, the way to get more land and more manpower. But in the present, war is expensive, and countries that have not gone to war have prospered better.
Human stupidity is one of the most important forces in history, yet we often tend to discount it. One potential remedy for human stupidity is a dose of humility. National, religious, and cultural tensions are made worse by the grandiose feeling that my nation, my religion, and my culture are the most important in the world. People need to realize their true place in the world.
Chapter 12: Humility
The truth is, everyone claims superiority. People are brainwashed from a young age to believe that their group, their religion is the center of the world. The key thing to remember is that the world is large and humans have created hundreds or religions. When we see things in the right perspective, you automatically become humble.
Chapter 13: God
Harari says that you don’t need to necessarily believe in God to be moral. If you believe in not causing suffering to another human being or reducing the suffering of others, that would suffice.
Would a human really care about another person’s misery? Most probably yes, people are social animals and their happiness depends to a large extent on the relations with others. So the belief in not causing suffering to another human is at the core of our existence and doesn’t need belief or fear of God to be so.
Religious belief can create compassion and kindness in people but it can also stoke anger against people who do not follow their belief system.
Chapter 14: Secularism
Secularism is a positive and active worldview. It is not opposed to religion. In fact, the core of most religion are secularist principles. Secularism views morality and wisdom as the natural legacy of all humans, not something handed down from God to a specific set of humans at a point in time.
The Secular Ideals -
- Commitment to truth
- Compassion
- Commitment to equality
- Cherish Responsibility
“Questions you cannot answer are usually far better for you than answers you cannot question.”
Part IV: Truth
Chapter 15: Ignorance
Individual humans are pretty ignorant of their world. We rely mostly on the expertise of others whether we acknowledge it or not.
Most of people’s views are shaped by communal groupthink rather than individual rationality, and they hold on to these views due to group loyalty. Stating facts to convince someone might actually backfire. True especially for superstitions people.
Harari talks about how power acts like a blackhole that warps the spacetime around it. Leaders are trapped in it. They have the best knowledge at their disposal but might not be able to leverage it since people might say the right things other than flattery due to the lack of time.
Chapter 16: Justice
According to Harari, there is injustice all around the world and most people live on being ignorant of the part that they are playing. What if the phone that I bought was created by child laborers? What if the company that I invested in and gives me 5% returns is involved in dumping toxic waste that kills sealife? What if the sugar that I’m having for tea results in slave trade across the world?
The world is so complex and interdependent that only the ignorant can judge and blame other. One could be abetting a crime just by sitting at home.
Chapter 17: Post-Truth
We’re now living in a tragic world of fake news. There is no real way of separating truth from fake news. Propaganda and disinformation is nothing new. It existed in the past - Japanese army created the fake country of Manchukuo to legitimize its conquests, China has long denied that Tibet ever existed as an independent country, British settlement in Australia was justified by the legal doctrine of terra nullius (“no one’s land”), etc.
“When a thousand people believe some made-up story for one month, that’s fake news. When a billion people believe it for a thousand years, that’s a religion” !!
Harari mentions that it is our responsibility to invest time and effort in uncovering our biases and in verifying our sources of information. Also, if you want reliable information, pay good money for it.
“If you get your news for free, you might well be the product.”
Chapter 18: Science Fiction
Harari says that in the 21st century, perhaps the most important genre is science fiction. It gets people excited (or fearful) about the future possibilities and also teaches about fields of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence more than what people try to read to find out. From that perspective, it is a great responsibility also. Sci-fi authors and movies can distort people’s views and give them bad ideas.
Harari cites examples from Orwell’s 1984 and Huxley’s Brave New World.
Part V: Resilience
Chapter 19: Education
It is more difficult than ever to predict the future. So we don’t know how things will be in 2050 and cannot really know what we should teach kids to prepare themselves for 2050. The schooling system has foundations in a past world when information was scarce and just knowing to read and write and getting the basics of geography, history and biology was a great improvement. But in today’s world, there is an information overload. So cramming information into kids is probably not the best use of time.
What about teaching technologies that are important today - say coding in C++ or to talk Chinese? But after investing a lot of time in this, we might discover in 2050 that machines/AI can do this better than humans! What should the schools be teaching ? Experts agree on “the four Cs” — Critical thinking, Communication, Collaboration, and Creativity.
The ability to constantly learn and reinvent yourself would be the key.
Chapter 20: Meaning
Do we have a fixed ‘true’ identity that determines our duties in life? Is our purpose in life to find this identity and fulfill it? Simba the lion was born to eat antelopes and Arjuna the warrior was born to fight battles and if they don’t they are shunning the natural course of events in a Circle of Life. Are they? Harari goes through a few more worldviews and concludes that all stories are incomplete.
In order to give meaning to life, a story needs to satisfy 2 conditions -
- It must give the individual a role to play.
- It must extend beyond the individuals horizons (as religious stories extends to eternity).
You cannot leave anything meaningfully tangible behind. So you might be better off just helping someone else.
Human quest for meaning all too often ends with a succession of sacrifices - self or others.
3 basic realities of the universe by The Buddha -
- Everything is constantly changing
- Nothing has any enduring essence
- Nothing is completely satisfying
Chapter 21: Meditation
Was surprised to see Harari mention about Vipassana meditation course. I’d heard about it from AM who has been my colleague since 2011.
Harari talks about his first experience with meditation and says that he learned more about himself and about humans in general by observing his sensations for those ten days than he had learnt in his whole life up to that point.
He meditates for 2 hours every day! Remarkable.
He concludes by saying that we have a choice to make an effort and investigate who we really are.